The J Curve or Jihad

The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall

Author: Ian Bremmer

What Freakonomics does for understanding the economy, The J Curve does for better understanding how nations behave. Bremmer's tour of the nations of the world -- our friends, our foes, and others in between -- shows us how to see the world fresh, get rid of shopworn attitudes, and discover a new and useful way of thinking.

Publishers Weekly

With this timely book, political risk consultant Bremmer aims to "describe the political and economic forces that revitalize some states and push others toward collapse." His simple premise is that if one were to graph a nation's stability as a function of its openness, the result would be a "J curve," suggesting that as nations become more open, they become less stable until they eventually surpass their initial levels of stability. In other words, a closed society like Cuba is relatively stable; a more open society like Saudi Arabia is less so; and an extremely open society like the United States is extremely stable. Bremmer expertly distills decades-sometimes centuries-of history as he analyzes 10 countries at different positions on the J curve. North Korea is perhaps the most disturbing example of the left side of the curve, where a closed authoritarian regime produces effective stability; on the right of the curve sit stable countries like Turkey, Israel and India. This leads Bremmer to conclude that political isolation and sanctions often work against their intended results and that globalization is the key to opening closed authoritarian states. Bremmer persuasively illustrates his core thesis without eliding the complexities of global or national politics. (Sept.) Copyright 2006 Reed Business Information.

Library Journal

Can the democratic nations that fall along Eurasia Group president Bremmer's J Curve help their authoritarian brethren open up? With a five-city tour. Copyright 2006 Reed Business Information.

Kirkus Reviews

Novel analysis of how countries make the transition from autocracy to openness. Foreign-policy pro and political-risk consultant Bremmer offers an easy-to-grasp theory with a visual twist. Imagine a J-shaped curve on a graph; the vertical axis represents stability, the horizontal axis political openness. High up on the left side of the J curve are countries that are fairly stable but not open, such as North Korea, Cuba and Saudi Arabia. On the right side of the curve, which extends much higher than the left, are nations that are both open and stable: the United States, countries of Western Europe, Japan. Bremmer takes it as a given that the optimal place to be is high on the right side of the curve. But to make the transition, he argues, states must first slide down the left side of the curve into the dip, which is its most unstable point. For example, when a dictatorship collapses, simmering tensions within a country can be unleashed, e.g., Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Some countries, such as South Africa in the 1990s, make it through the dip with visionary leadership. Some-Bremmer cites Vladimir Putin's Russia-struggle with instability and slide back up, toward authoritarianism. Others, such as the former Yugoslavia, implode. Bremmer also scrutinizes Iran, China and Turkey, among others, suggesting ways to ease movement from left to right. The goal of U.S. policy, he writes, should not be to impose democracy, but to find ways of opening up closed countries to the outside world instead of isolating them, to foster economic reform and to encourage citizens to call for democracy from within. He credits the Cold War, in which America engaged on cultural, diplomatic, social,economic and military levels, as the model to follow. A shrewd and timely take on a continual dilemma of international relations.

What People Are Saying

"The J-Curve provides both policymakers and business strategists with an innovative set of conceptual tools for understanding political risk in rapidly changing societies, tools that integrate political, economic, and security perspectives in new and creative ways."
—Francis Fukuyama, author of The End of History and the Last Man

"A rare book that manages to be intellectually ambitious, policy-relevant and layman-friendly. Bremmer convincingly argues that smart American diplomacy, harnessing the forces of globalization, can induce closed societies to open up without falling apart. Timely, thoughtful, and written with verve and clarity, this is an impressive work of analysis and prescription."
—Strobe Talbott, president of the Brookings Institution, former deputy secretary of state

"Ian Bremmer has come up with a smart, fresh way to think about how countries develop. His J Curve gets at the heart of a dynamic of change affecting large swathes of the world. A book well worth reading."
—Fareed Zakaria, author of The Future of Freedom

"For those who are looking for new ideas, concepts, and theories to develop a 21st century understanding of our 21st century global experience, Ian Bremmer's The J Curve is quintessential reading. Mixing economics and politics, theory with realpolitik and geo-economics, Bremmer challenges us to think in a new idiom about what's going to happen next in our world."
—Dan Burstein, Managing Partner, Millennium Technology Ventures, and author of Big Dragon and Road Warriors

"The J Curve is a fresh and useful way to examine the durability and stability of political systems that is essential to the formation of foreign policy. Bremmer analyzes twelve very different but important countries and suggests what challenges they pose. His book is a stimulating effort to get away from the stale and anachronistic notions of international relations that too often, and disastrously, shape foreign policy."
—Brian Urquhart, former Under-Secretary General of the United Nations

"This book is a must-read, and not only for its insight into foreign policy. Individual institutions can be assessed on the J curve as well and their evolution similarly evaluated. A stunning analysis, notable for its depth, scope and clarity."
—Vint Cerf, Chief Internet Evangelist, Google

"Ian Bremmer's groundbreaking book brings us an entirely new way to look at the world scene-to understand today's worldwide political and economic problems and how to deal with them."
—Thomas Pickering, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations

"Make no mistake. This book should be required reading for any executive whose company invests in foreign economies or plans to do so."
—Samuel A. DiPiazza Jr., Global CEO, PricewaterhouseCoopers

"Bremmer provides a vital and compelling framework for viewing the world in a deeper, more complex, and ultimately far more intelligent and realistic light. Read it all, or study specific nations with its rubric, and you will come away worldlier—and wiser. If only our politicians would do the same!"
—Clark Winter, Chief Global Strategist, Citigroup Private Bank

"The J Curve is intuitive, resolution oriented, concise and yet profound, insightful, informed, positive and shares knowledge, experience and wisdom. If world leaders listen, we will live in a better world."
—Robert Buderi, co-author of Guanxi

"The J Curve offers a new and interesting framework for understanding the internal dynamics of countries that are important, or dangerous, or both, and for thinking about how the United States can meet the formidable challenges involved in dealing with them."
—Michael Mandelbaum, author of The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World's Government in the Twenty-first Century

Table of Contents:

Ch. 1	Stability, openness, and the J curve	3
Ch. 2	The far left side of the J Curve	27
Ch. 3	The slide toward instability	79
Ch. 4	The depths of the J curve	147
Ch. 5	The right side of the J curve	191
Ch. 6	China's dilemma	237
Ch. 7	Conclusion	265

New interesting book: Shunju or Cafe Flora Cookbook

Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia

Author: Ahmed Rashid

Ahmed Rashid, whose masterful account of Afghanistan's Taliban regime became required reading after September 11, turns his legendary skills as an investigative journalist to five adjacent Central Asian Republics-Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan-where religious repression, political corruption, and extreme poverty have created a fertile climate for militant Islam. Based on groundbreaking research and numerous interviews, Rashid explains the roots of fundamentalist rage in Central Asia, describes the goals and activities of its militant organizations, including Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda, and suggests ways of neutralizing the threat and bringing stability to the troubled region. A timely and pertinent work, Jihad is essential reading for anyone who seeks to gain a better understanding of a region we overlook at our peril.

Financial Times (London) - Justin Marozzi

[A] masterful commentary. . . combines. . . research of a skilled investigative journalist with an academic's clear-headed. . . analysis. . . [T]he best we have.

Wall Street Journal - Adrian Karatnycky

A compelling account of Islamist movement that has spread like wildfire in Central Asia's repressive regimes...[Rashid] makes it vividly real.

Foreign Affairs - L. Carl Brown

. . .[A] fine study. . . Rashid. . . treats the five separate 'stans'. . . [and] their various Islamist movements. . .

Robert D. Kaplan

For many years now,Ahmed Rashid has been the journalistic interpreter of the changing nature of Islam in Central Asia. He has always been ahead of the curve,and America's war on terrorism makes his new book more important than ever.

Washington Post Book World - Peter Bergen

Rashid['s]. . . tour d'horizon is a tour de force,illuminating one of the murkier regions of the world.

Financial Times - Justin Marozzi

[A] masterful commentary. . . combines. . . research of a skilled investigative journalist with an academic's clear-headed. . . analysis. . . [T]he best we have.

John L. Esposito

Jihad is but the latest of Ahmed Rashid's insightful books on religion and politics in South and Central Asia. It would be welcome at any time but is critical reading today. A must read for policymakers,scholars,the media,and informed citizens.

San Jose Mercury News - Pete Carey

[An] eye-opener on a region many Americans. . . may known only through National Geographic. . . This is first-class reporting.

Boston Globe - Scott Bernard Nelson

A complicated tale . . . and Rashid is the right person to tell it.

The Nation

[T]he first good, hard look at the region's Islamic movements . . . [D]eserves the attention of policymakers and interested everyday readers alike.

Publishers Weekly

As the events of September 11 showed, neglected areas of the Islamic world are feeding grounds for international terrorism. And as Rashid, author of the best-selling Taliban, shows in this important work, Islamic fundamentalism is gaining ground in Central Asia as well as it did in neighboring Afghanistan. Until 1991, the five Central Asian countries Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan were part of the Soviet Union. As Rashid discloses, the decade since then has seen a region grown increasingly despotic and impoverished, even though the countries are rich in oil. He offers brief histories of the five countries that make up Central Asia before launching into the rise of Islam. The story line Rashid skillfully weaves is relatively straightforward: Islamist groups, barely tolerated during the waning days of the U.S.S.R., experienced a revival after Communist strictures against religion were lifted. Forced to go underground as post-Communist leaders used repression to ensure their own survival, these Islamist groups "would eventually become radicalized and violent" and outsiders from the Arab world further radicalized them. The strongest group, with ties to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida, emerged in Uzbekistan and has been brutally repressed by President Islam Karimov. Rashid pointedly focuses on how the United States has looked the other way regarding Karimov's human rights abuses as Uzbekistan has offered support for the U.S.-led war on terrorism. Without international pressure on these regimes to follow human rights standards and end the corruption that has left the societies poor, Rashid argues that Central Asia could become the world's next tinder box. (Feb.) Forecast: Rashid has proven he deserves attention and readers. He will probably get media time, but the reading frenzy about the roots of terrorism could be waning, and this book's sales may not match those of Taliban. Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information.

What People Are Saying

Robert D. Kaplan
For many years now, Ahmed Rashid has been the journalistic interpreter of the changing nature of Islam in Central Asia. He has always been ahead of the curve, and America's war on terrorism makes his new book more important than ever.
(— Robert D. Kaplan, author of Warrior Politics)

John L. Esposito
Jihad is but the latest of Ahmed Rashid's insightful books on religion and politics in South and Central Asia. It would be welcome at any time but is critical reading today. A must read for policymakers, scholars, the media, and informed citizens.
(— John L. Esposito, author of Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality?)